The estimate measures deaths expected to occur because of unusually high temperatures compared with what would be expected in an average year. It is not a count of deaths that have already occurred, but a projection of the additional mortality associated with the extreme heat expected during the first six months of the developing El Nino.
India faces a rising heat toll
India is among the countries expected to face a significant heat-related toll, with the report estimating 15,800 additional deaths during the six months.
The researchers also warn that the impact on India could extend beyond February because the country enters its hotter months soon afterwards. Heat-related deaths are expected to continue rising into the Indian summer as the effects of the unusually strong El Nino persist.
Why is El Nino raising heat risks?
El Nino is a natural climate pattern linked to unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It alters atmospheric circulation and can influence temperature and rainfall patterns across large parts of the world.
The current event is developing on top of an already warmer climate, which means its effects can be amplified.
The World Meteorological Organization has forecast further strengthening, with El Nino typically reaching peak intensity between November and February.
The term “Super El Nino”, however, is not an official category used by the WMO. The organisation classifies El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong.
Global South faces higher death toll
The projected deaths are concentrated heavily across countries in the Global South. The report estimates:
- 66,800 additional deaths across the Sahel, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad
- 31,400 deaths in Nigeria, the largest country-level estimate
- 19,300 deaths in Indonesia
- 19,400 deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia combined
- 13,300 deaths in Brazil
How can countries reduce the risk?
The researchers say the projections could help governments identify where preventive measures are most urgently needed. These could include:
- Earlier and more targeted heat warnings
- Cooling centres for vulnerable populations
- Better access to drinking water and hydration facilities
- Greater protection for outdoor workers
- Additional staffing and capacity in health facilities during extreme heat
The World Health Organization has also highlighted the need for country-specific risk assessments, preparedness, and stronger health-system readiness as El Nino develops.
