The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has further lowered its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) from the earlier predicted 92 per cent of LPA, indicating that rains are likely to be ‘below normal’ over the country as a whole.

 

The forecast comes with a model error margin of plus or minus 4 per cent. IMD said that rainfall is expected to be below normal due to the development of El Nino during the monsoon season, but the Indian Ocean Dipole (another factor that impacts the Indian monsoon) is expected to remain ‘neutral’ during the season.

 
 

The long-period average (LPA) of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm.

 

LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years.

 

In its second-stage forecast, IMD’s projections showed that no part of the country, barring North-East India, is expected to receive ‘normal’ rainfall this year.

 

What is more worrying is that IMD, in its regional forecast, also said that the southwest monsoon over the monsoon core zone, which comprises most of the rain-fed agricultural areas in the country, is most likely to be below normal at less than 94 per cent of the LPA.

 

This could have a damaging impact on the production of major pulses and oilseeds, including soybean, tur, urad and cotton, as well as sugarcane and some cereals, as most of the monsoon core zone lies in the central and western parts of India.

 

However, senior government officials, including Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, said that the government is well prepared to face any eventuality.

 

“We have made a war chest of 174,000 quintals of seeds over and above the 1.73 million quintals required for the kharif season to meet any exigencies, including re-sowing of crops and delayed sowing,” Chouhan told reporters while addressing the two-day Kharif 2026 campaign.

 

The total availability of seeds for Kharif 2026 across India is 1.93 million tonnes, significantly higher than the required quantity.

 

Meanwhile, the IMD, in its second-stage forecast, also said that during June-September 2026, below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of north-west and North-East India, eastern parts of the southern peninsula and adjoining areas of east-central India, and isolated pockets of East India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.

 

Not only for the whole season, the Met department also said that average rainfall across the country in June, which is the first month of the four-month season, is likely to be below normal at 92 per cent of the LPA. This could delay the sowing of kharif crops, particularly paddy and maize, in most parts of the country.

 

“In June 2026, below-normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except in some parts of north-west India, North-East India and the southern peninsula, and isolated pockets of central India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely,” the IMD said.

 

On temperatures, IMD said that ‘above-normal’ maximum temperatures are likely in June 2026 over most parts of the country, except some parts of central, north-west and East India, where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are very likely.

 

The onset of the monsoon, which was expected on May 26, is now expected around June 1, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.