The report updates climate indicators through 2025, using more than 40 global datasets. The findings arrive as countries prepare for the next round of climate negotiations and as extreme weather events become more frequent across the globe.

What did the study find?

The report says 2025 was the third-warmest year on record globally, continuing a run of exceptionally hot years. 

The report found that average global greenhouse gas emissions remained at record levels over the past decade, reaching 54.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalent annually. 

The report highlighted growing signs of climate stress in the oceans. The number of days affected by marine heatwaves has more than tripled since 1991, raising concerns about impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and weather patterns. 

The report also found signs that the growth of CO₂ emissions is slowing, although global emissions remain near record highs.

Why the human contribution matters

One of the report’s most significant findings is that human influence now explains nearly all of the long-term warming observed globally. 

Scientists estimate that of the 1.26 degrees Celsius warming recorded over 2016-2025, around 1.24 degrees Celsius was caused by human activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation and industrial emissions. 

The finding leaves little room for natural factors such as changes in solar activity, volcanic eruptions or ocean cycles to explain the long-term rise in global temperatures. 

Researchers say this is important because it strengthens confidence in climate projections. If human activities are the dominant driver of warming, then future temperature trends will depend largely on how quickly greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced.

Why La Niña matters

La Niña typically cools global temperatures by strengthening ocean-atmosphere patterns in the Pacific Ocean. Yet despite this natural cooling influence, 2025 still ranked among the hottest years ever recorded.

What is Earth’s Energy Imbalance?

One of the report’s most important indicators is Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI). In simple terms, EEI measures whether Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is sending back into space. If more energy comes in than goes out, the extra heat accumulates in the oceans, atmosphere and land. 

The report found that Earth’s Energy Imbalance has more than doubled compared with the 1976-1995 period. 

Scientists consider EEI a critical measure because it shows how much additional warming is already “locked in” even before it appears in temperature records. 

According to Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds and lead author of the report, Earth’s energy imbalance is an important indicator, measuring how fast heat is accumulating in the climate system, offering a crucial measure of the pace of climate change. 

“Without human influence, it (EEI) should be close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s and is now at a record high, doubling in recent decades,” Phys.org quoted him as saying.

What about the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit?

The report does not mean the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degrees Celsius limit has officially been breached. 

The Paris target refers to long-term average global warming over multiple decades rather than temperatures in a single year. 

How do scientists know this?

Researchers use climate models and observational data to separate human influence from natural climate factors. 

The models simulate what temperatures would look like under natural influences alone, such as volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity, and compare those results with scenarios that include greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. 

The growing gap between the two allows scientists to estimate how much warming is attributable to human actions.

Why it matters for India

The findings carry particular significance for India, one of the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts. 

Higher levels of global warming increase the likelihood of more frequent and intense heatwaves, erratic monsoon behaviour, extreme rainfall events, glacier melt in the Himalayas and rising urban heat stress. 

The marine heatwave days have more than tripled since 1991, according to the report, a trend that could affect the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, with implications for cyclones, fisheries and coastal communities. 

For India, where average temperatures are rising faster than the global average in some regions, the findings underscore growing risks to agriculture, water security and public health.