Hazlewood missed the entire Ashes series through injury and Cummins played just once due to his back injury. Lyon featured in only two Tests due to a serious hamstring injury and they were the only two matches where Australia picked a frontline spinner. But all three are available for Darwin and Lyon is the only spinner in the squad with conditions at TIO Stadium almost certain to require one in the XI. It means one of Hazlewood or Boland, who played all five Ashes Tests alongside Starc, will likely miss out.

Boland was squeezed out the last time the four were fit and only three were selected in the Caribbean. Boland has only once been picked ahead of the one of the three, which was the World Test Championship final in 2023, when Hazlewood was underdone coming back from an Achilles issue, and Boland retained his place ahead of Starc in the first Ashes Test that followed at Edgbaston. However, Boland has consistently been kept out ever since when the trio were fit despite his remarkable record, particularly on home soil, but Bailey acknowledged it remained a regular conversation.

“Constantly, and it’s not something that we haven’t looked at,” Bailey said. “Scotty would never say it, but I think he’s mounting a strong case that when you use the words ‘the big three’, that he could be one of those. We won’t be locking in an XI this far out … but we do know that across this two Test series, the depth is there.”

Boland has 82 wickets at 18.58 from 19 Tests with 69 of those coming in Australia at a 16.20 runs apiece. Despite being 37, he has not missed a Test through injury since his debut in 2021 and has only had minor plantar fasciitis and knee tendonitis issues in that time, both of which he has solved in the last 12 months, leading to him playing five Tests in a row for the first time in his career during the Ashes.

“Our planning is that across the 21 Tests that there’ll be different times when there’ll be different names and a different line-up and how that looks, but not so much forecasting in terms of mapping out that they’ll miss certain games. The conditions and, I guess, the outcomes will dictate that a little bit as well.”

Australia selector George Bailey on mapping out the 12 months ahead

Hazlewood’s record is also exceptional. The 35-year-old has 295 wickets at 24.21 from 76 Tests, but his recent injury history, by contrast to Boland, is a significant concern. He has sustained injuries in the first Test or first-class fixture he has played in four of the last five summers.

“There has been some adjustments to both his training and some of his physical prep to try and alleviate some of those setbacks that he’s had,” Bailey said. “[It] is not uncommon. We know that those guys, the experience they have and the amount of cricket they have played across a long period, that there’s always little adjustments being made.

“But I guess as a collective they’re all on slightly different training regimes, and for some of them that’ll look a little bit different in terms of what they play, and even going forward post this series in terms of how much white-ball cricket they play in the lead up to series and what fits and what doesn’t. So, yeah, he’s made some adjustments, but as it stands right now, hopefully that’s got him really well placed for this series.”

The high performance team also tried something different last winter, with Hazlewood keen to continue playing after the Caribbean Test tour in white-ball series to keep his body up and running while Starc and Boland had a lengthy rest period and pre-season build-up into facing England. Hazlewood paid the price with hamstring and Achilles injuries ending his summer before the Ashes started while the other two played all five games.

The decision was made this winter to rest Hazlewood, Starc and Cummins from the white-ball tours of Pakistan and Bangladesh in June after the IPL to give them a lengthy block of training similar to what Boland is doing every winter as a Test-only bowler. The selectors and CA’s staff are looking at how they can build similar training blocks into the next 12 months given Australia play 20 (possibly 21 Tests), as well as nine ODIs and five T20Is, with the only break being the IPL period in April and May next year.

“Part of it will be identifying some periods when there are small gaps between Test series and white-ball series over the next 18-24 months, where you can maybe invest a little bit back into the body and into the mind to stay fresh,” Bailey said. “But again, part of that will also be dictated to how often those guys are playing each and every Test, and how much they’re required within each and every Test as well.”

Bailey did confirm that the selectors are not pre-planning to rest any of their quicks from particular Tests or series – the India series in January and February may be a time when not all of them are required – however they know depth will be needed over the next 12 months, as it was in the Ashes.

“The unknowns are how much workload they have within certain Test matches or within certain Test series,” Bailey said. “Conditions obviously play a factor at different times as well across the 21 Tests and the various differences we’ll face across those as well.

“Our planning is that across the 21 Tests that there will be different times when there will be different names and a different line-up and how that looks, but not so much forecasting in terms of mapping out that they’ll miss certain games. The conditions and, I guess, the outcomes will dictate that a little bit as well.”