Amid intense debate over delimitation of Lok Sabha seats based on population, the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) Bulletin has flagged a far deeper demographic shift unfolding across India, with birth rates continuing to decline sharply in southern and western states while remaining significantly higher in the Hindi heartland, raising fresh concerns over ageing populations, shrinking workforce growth and the future of India’s demographic dividend.

 

The SRS Bulletin released by the Registrar General of India shows that the country’s crude birth rate has declined to 18.3 births per 1,000 population in 2024 from 21 in 2014 and 36.9 in 1971, reflecting a major demographic transition over the past five decades. The death rate has also declined from 14.9 in 1971 to 6.4 in 2024. The country’s natural growth rate has now slowed to 11.9, while the infant mortality rate (IMR) has declined to 24 per 1,000 live births.

 
 

India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her reproductive years, has declined to 1.9 in 2024, falling below the replacement-level fertility of 2.1 needed to maintain stable population levels over generations.

 

The findings indicate that India has entered an advanced stage of demographic transition far earlier than anticipated, with the data revealing a widening regional imbalance that could have major economic and political implications. Southern states that aggressively pursued family planning, literacy and healthcare reforms over the last few decades are now witnessing extremely low fertility and population growth levels.

 

Kerala has recorded the lowest birth rate among major states at 11.1, followed by Tamil Nadu at 11.6, Punjab at 13.6, Maharashtra at 13.8, West Bengal at 13.9, Andhra Pradesh at 14.3, Karnataka at 14.9, Telangana at 15.7 and Odisha at 15.8. Delhi and Gujarat too have low birth rates of 12.8 and 16.8 respectively, below the national average of 18.3.

 

According to the SRS Bulletin, Delhi has the country’s lowest TFR at just 1.2, while Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal’s TFR stood at 1.3. Several other states, including Andhra Pradesh (1.4), Maharashtra (1.4), Punjab (1.4), Karnataka (1.5), Telangana (1.5), Odisha (1.6), Gujarat (1.7), Assam and Haryana (1.9), too have reached a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1.

 

The natural growth rates in these states have also dropped sharply. Kerala’s natural growth rate has fallen to just 3.9, Tamil Nadu’s to 4.8, Punjab’s to 6.5 and Andhra Pradesh’s to 7.7. Maharashtra stands at 7.8, Karnataka at 7.9, Odisha at 8, West Bengal at 8.1, Delhi at 8.4 and Telangana at 9.1, down from the all-India average of 11.9.

 

In contrast, the northern and central states continue to drive India’s population expansion. Bihar has recorded the country’s highest birth rate at 26.8 births per 1,000 population, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 23.5, Rajasthan at 22.8, Madhya Pradesh at 22.5, Chhattisgarh at 22.2 and Jharkhand at 21.5.

 

The natural growth rates in these states remain substantially above the national average. Bihar’s natural growth rate stands at 20.8, Uttar Pradesh at 17.2, Rajasthan at 17, Meghalaya at 16.7, Madhya Pradesh at 15.8 and Jharkhand at 15.3. These figures are nearly four to five times higher than Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

 

The rural-urban fertility divide also remains striking. India’s rural TFR stands at 2.1, exactly at replacement level, compared to just 1.5 in urban India. India’s rural birth rate stands at 20.2 compared to 14.7 in urban areas. Bihar’s rural birth rate is 27.5, Uttar Pradesh’s 24.5 and Madhya Pradesh’s 24.3, whereas Kerala’s rural birth rate has dropped to 11.1 and Tamil Nadu’s to 12.1.

 

The demographic divide is equally visible in health outcomes. Kerala has India’s lowest infant mortality rate among major states at 8 deaths per 1,000 live births, while Tamil Nadu stands at 11 and Maharashtra at 13. Delhi, Karnataka, West Bengal, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh too have relatively low IMRs of 11, 15, 16, 17 and 18 respectively.

 

On the other hand, Chhattisgarh has the country’s highest infant mortality rate at 36, followed by Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh at 35 each. Assam has an IMR of 29, while Odisha and Rajasthan stand at 28 and Jharkhand at 27. “Despite substantial progress, one in every 42 infants in India still dies before completing one year of life. In rural India, the figure is even worse at one in every 37 infants,” the bulletin stated.

 

Death rates also indicate emerging demographic pressures, with Chhattisgarh registering the country’s highest death rate at 8.4, followed by Odisha at 7.9, Kerala at 7.3, Punjab at 7.1, Karnataka at 7 and Tamil Nadu at 6.8. Delhi has the lowest death rate of 4.5, while the rate stood at 5.5 in Jammu and Kashmir, 5.8 in West Bengal and Rajasthan, and 5.9 in Bihar.

 

The SRS report also reveals a major structural change in family size preferences. Nearly 66.4 per cent of live births in the country are now first-order births, while only 3.5 per cent are fourth-order or higher births, indicating that large families are rapidly disappearing across much of the country.

 

Experts said the south’s demographic transition is the result of decades of investment in female literacy, public healthcare, urbanisation, family planning and social welfare. Kerala and Tamil Nadu achieved early improvements in maternal health, women’s education and access to contraception, leading to smaller family sizes and delayed childbirth.

 

Northern states, however, continue to struggle with lower female literacy, higher poverty levels, early marriage and lower access to healthcare and education. Large rural populations and slower urbanisation in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh continue to sustain higher fertility levels.

 

The SRS data further shows that India’s elderly population is steadily rising. Nearly 9.7 per cent of the country’s population is now aged 60 years and above, with a slightly higher percentage for females (10.1 per cent) than males (9.3 per cent). In rural areas, 9.4 per cent of the population is aged 60 years and above, while it is slightly higher at 10.1 per cent in urban areas. The share of children aged 0–14 years has, however, declined to 24 per cent, signalling the gradual ageing of the population structure.

 

Kerala has the highest 15.1 per cent population in the age group of 60 years and above, followed by Tamil Nadu (14.2 per cent) and Himachal Pradesh (13 per cent) as the next two states with a relatively higher percentage of elderly population. On the other hand, Assam (7.6 per cent), Jharkhand (7.7 per cent), Bihar (7.8 per cent) and Delhi (7.8 per cent) have the lowest percentage of population in the age group of 60 years and above.

 

The bulletin also raises questions over the sustainability of India’s demographic dividend. India’s economic rise has long been linked to its large young workforce, but the latest data suggests that economically advanced southern and western states are rapidly ageing.

 

Kerala’s combination of low birth rate and relatively high death rate indicates that the state is entering an advanced demographic transition phase similar to developed countries. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra are moving in a similar direction, potentially leading to slower workforce growth and higher welfare burdens in the coming decades.

 

This demographic imbalance is already reshaping labour migration patterns. Southern and western industrial states are increasingly dependent on migrant workers from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha for construction, manufacturing, logistics and services sectors.

 

Economists have warned that India is now facing multiple demographic realities simultaneously, as northern India continues to battle rapid population growth, unemployment and pressure on resources, while southern India confronts ageing populations and labour shortages.

 

Amarendra Das, associate professor at the National Institute of Science Education and Research (NISER) and coordinator of the DST-Centre for Policy Research, said the SRS Bulletin signals a historic turning point in India’s demography – from fears of population explosion to concerns over demographic imbalance, ageing, workforce decline and political redistribution.

 

“India’s demographic dividend window may narrow faster than anticipated, making investments in education, skilling, healthcare and employment generation critical for sustaining long-term economic growth. The states with TFR below replacement level may now need calibrated social and economic policies to stabilise population levels and avoid long-term demographic imbalance,” he told Business Standard.

 

The SRS findings have also added a new dimension to the political debate over delimitation of Lok Sabha seats. Although the Lok Sabha is proposed to undergo delimitation based on the 2011 Census to expand the lower house to a maximum of 850 seats, any future redistribution based on current population figures could significantly increase the parliamentary strength of northern states while reducing the relative representation of southern India.