India is no longer a high-fertility country by global standards. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-6) released last month, the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has stabilised at 2.0.

India’s fertility decline from 1971

The country’s TFR dropped to 3.6 by 1991 (or to 3.4 as per NFHS 1). By 2011, the fertility rate had declined to 2.4 (see Chart 1). Five years later, India’s TFR dropped further to 2.2, according to NFHS-4, reflecting rising urbanisation, improved access to healthcare and contraception, higher female literacy, and changing family preferences.

According to NFHS-6, India’s total fertility rate remains at 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1 and unchanged from NFHS-5. The data indicate that the country has sustained below-replacement fertility levels since 2019–21, marking a significant shift from the large-family norms that prevailed for much of the 20th century.

 
The decline in fertility has coincided with improved access to family planning and maternal healthcare services. According to NFHS-6, the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) increased from 66.7 per cent to 69.1 per cent, indicating wider use of family planning methods. Maternal healthcare indicators also improved, with more women receiving antenatal care in the first trimester and completing at least four ANC visits, the NFHS-6 showed. Together, these trends point to greater access to reproductive healthcare and increased awareness of maternal and child well-being.

Chart 1: 

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India versus rest of the world

India’s fertility rate now places the country in a demographic category closer to middle- and high-income economies rather than traditionally high-fertility developing nations. India’s fertility rate is now closer to countries such as the UK and the US than to neighbours such as Pakistan, where women still have substantially more children on average.

In the 1950s, India’s population was 360 million, and women had around six children on average, according to multiple reports. Today, the country’s fertility rate remains below the replacement rate, even as its population has grown to about 1.45 billion.

However, India also remains distinct from East Asian economies such as South Korea, Singapore, China and Japan, which face ultra-low fertility crises (see Chart 2). Yet, India remains in a demographic middle ground, below the replacement level, but it is still far from the world’s lowest-fertility societies.

Chart 2:

Countries with the world’s lowest fertility rates

Even as India’s TFR has dropped below the replacement level, it remains well above the ultra-low fertility levels now seen across several East Asian and European economies. South Korea currently has the world’s lowest fertility rate at around 0.7 children per woman, while countries such as Singapore, China and Japan have fertility rates close to or just above one child per woman. Italy and Spain have also remained stuck in prolonged low-fertility cycles (see Chart 3).

These countries are increasingly struggling with demographic challenges such as ageing populations, shrinking workforces and rising pension and healthcare burdens. Meanwhile, India has a relatively younger population profile and a larger working-age base. While the country’s fertility transition signals the gradual slowing of population growth, it has not yet entered the severe demographic contraction phase confronting several advanced economies.

Chart 3:

Income levels when countries dropped below replacement fertility  

According to World Bank data, when India’s fertility rate fell below the replacement level in 2019, the country’s GDP per capita stood at about $2,041 (see Chart 4). China crossed the same threshold in 1991 when its GDP per capita was $334, while South Korea and Japan did so at income levels of about $2,469 and $4,448, respectively. Brazil and Thailand reached below-replacement fertility at GDP per capita levels of about $3,091 and $1,766, respectively.

The comparison shows that countries have entered the below-replacement fertility phase at very different stages of economic development. While East Asian economies crossed the threshold decades ago, India has done so more recently and at an income level comparable to several middle-income economies. The data suggest there is no single income or economic threshold at which the fertility rate of a country falls below replacement level.  Chart 4: