The southwest monsoon reached the Kerala coast on Thursday, three days later than usual, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. The onset of rains marks the beginning of the monsoon’s four-month journey across the Indian mainland.
This year, the onset and progress of the monsoon are being closely watched because of concerns over the impact of El Niño on rainfall patterns and overall ECONOMIC performance. The weather department had earlier forecast the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala on May 26, but its onset was delayed.
The IMD has already lowered its forecast from 92 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) to 90 per cent of the LPA. If the prediction proves accurate, India in 2026 could record its weakest monsoon in more than a decade.
A below-normal monsoon could affect farm output and broader economic stability, including inflation. The monsoon provides nearly 70 per cent of the rainfall required for crops such as rice, maize, cotton, soybeans and sugarcane, while also replenishing aquifers and reservoirs.
The IMD also said conditions were favourable for the monsoon to advance over Goa, parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, additional areas of Karnataka, and the remaining parts of Tamil Nadu over the next two to three days.
Meanwhile, rating agency CRISIL said in a research note that the 2026 kharif season was expected to begin on a stable footing, supported by healthy reservoir levels and favourable early sowing conditions. “However, El Niño-led rainfall variability and warmer conditions during the season could emerge as key headwinds for yields due to water scarcity and an increase in pest infections and disease manifestation, especially during critical crop growth stages. Concurrently, tighter fertiliser supplies and increased dependence on crop protection products may also add to input challenges. Ultimately, rainfall distribution and input availability will be the key determinants of the final kharif output,” it said.
Pulses buffer stock at record 4.3 mt
The government on Thursday said its record pulses buffer stock of 4.3 million tonnes would serve as a strategic cushion against any supply disruption or price spike triggered by a likely El Niño weather phenomenon.
Consumer Affairs Secretary Nidhi Khare told PTI on the sidelines of a FICCI event that the current buffer stock is more than double the 1.8 million tonnes held in May 2025 and significantly higher than the 2.1 million tonnes recorded in May 2024.
The sharp increase in stocks has been driven by the Centre’s assured procurement policy, introduced to boost domestic production, reduce dependence on imports and shield consumers from price volatility.
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