NEW DELHI: There doesn’t appear to be any respite from El Nino’s impact over the monsoon, with the latest update of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Friday indicating a “rapid development” of this climatic phenomenon during July-Sept, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts and other extreme weather events in many parts of the globe, including the Indian subcontinent.India is already facing El Nino’s influence with June recording a huge rainfall deficit of 40% for the month, affecting the ongoing sowing operations of almost all kharif (summer-sown) crops, thereby reducing the overall acreage in the country by around 23% compared to the corresponding period last year.El Nino – a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean – is invariably associated with a weak monsoon and a harsher summer in India. These events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and 12 months.“El Nino conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event… This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and sea in many regions of the world,” said WMO secretary general Celeste Saulo.Though the rainfall deficit in India will gradually be reduced with the spread of monsoon over the entire country and due to other meteorological factors during July-Sept, the status of the kharif acreage will depend on both the quantitative as well as spatial distribution of rains in the ‘monsoon core zone’ – the rain-fed area where farming is largely dependent on seasonal rains.The agriculture ministry’s acreage data shows the total area sown at 182 lakh hectares as on June 25 – 23% less compared to 236 lakh hectares a year ago. All major crops – paddy, pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals (millets and maize) and cotton – have seen lower acreage so far this year compared to the corresponding period last year. Acreage of oilseeds has seen the highest decline of 53%.
